My Octopus Agile &Go Tariff analysis website

#12

Hi Zarch

Great site.

How are you using this data to update your PVOUTPUT stats?

#13

Thanks for the feedback! :grinning:

No… I think its going to hard to do that… the PVO calculations seem to expect either fixed or very simple timed tariffs. If any calculations were to be to done I think i’d need to pull my generation/export data and collate with the Agile tariff pricing somewhere else.

#14

New Website Update - Octopus Outgoing / Export tariff historical and current data.

This data is just what those Solar PV owners have been waiting for.

Discussion points and my notes/thoughts for Octopus Outgoing Export Tariffs

  • Their fixed 5.5p per kWh fixed outgoing is a 2.2% increase over current Feed in Tariff (FIT) based 5.38p.

  • These Outgoing tariffs only replace the ‘export’ element of the FIT. Your generation payments will still come from your registered FIT supplier.

  • Both Fixed and Agile Outgoing are “actual” export rather than “deemed” 50% as per FIT.

  • You are likely better to stay put on deemed 50% if your export less than 50% of what you generate. ie, if you have immersion diversion, EV or other high daytime usage.

  • If you export more than 50% of what you generate the maths suggest you’d be better off on an ‘actual’ export tariff. The could well be the case with larger Solar installs.

  • Octopus add credit to your bill each day for your exports. Assuming you spend more on “inbound” energy than you earn on “outbound” they’ll aim to set direct debits at a level consistent with the estimated annual net amount. If you’re in credit you can withdraw at will online. (From Octopus CEO)

  • In comparison current FIT payments are usually every 3 months.

  • You need to be on an Octopus import tariff to have one of their export tariffs.

  • It will be very interesting to see the Agile Outgoing price through the winter months. The outgoing tariffs only started on 19th May 2019, so we have little historical data to analyse.

  • Whilst its easy to claim 11p per unit and above between 4pm and 7pm during the summer because of late sunset times, its going to be impossible through the winter months with 4pm sunsets.

  • Moving to Octopus requires a 12 month commitment for FIT payments. This is across the board, you can only move FIT supplier once a year.

  • But this does not apply to ‘export’ supplier. You can move when you want. Plus, you can freely move between Fixed and Agile Outgoing / Export plans once with Octopus.

  • So maybe there is opportunity to crunch the numbers to see if Fixed or Agile are better suited at different times of the year?

  • Will the Octopus Fixed Outgoing tariff increase with inflation as per the current FIT rewards?

  • The FAQ says there is nothing stopping you charging a battery using Solar during the day for free then selling back that energy between 4pm and 7pm for 11p+.

Find all the Outgoing current/historical stats and pricing at https://www.energy-stats.uk/

If you have any ideas of what else you’d like to see please let me know.

#15

More crazy Agile prices overnight. Down as low at 1.26p per unit and below 8p through most of tomorrow. :slight_smile:

#16

Website update:

As Octopus Energy outgoing tariff (ie the FIT export replacement) tariff is now 2 months old i’m now showing 60 days data from the Agile version of the tariff.

Hopefully more info for those considering moving away from FIT export payments or for new installs needing someone to take their excess generation.

Full details over on the site. https://www.energy-stats.uk

#17

As their Export tariff (Outgoing) is coming up to 3 months old I’ve updated the site to show up to 90 days data now.

#18

Agile pricing down as low at 1.68p per unit at 7am.

They’ll be paying us to use it soon!! :slightly_smiling_face:

#19

1.05p per unit coming up overnight… must be super windy and those turbines meaning lots of surplus energy when most folk don’t need it!

#20

My new Powerwall 2 is taking the excess generation :grinning: but not Octopus Agile - I think I’ll keep the assumed 50% export :laughing:

#21

Yep, sounds a plan.

The beauty of having options is choosing the one that bests suits you and your circumstances.

For me, i’m exporting waaaaay more than 50%… its closer to 75% as I have no battery or EV yet.

But what about this for a plan with your Powerwall?
Fill your battery up with free solar and then sell some of it back between 4pm and 6pm at 11p per unit. :wink:

#22

The Agile tariff is now over 18 months old and I was looking back and the history of the pricing yesterday. Geek that I am!! :rofl:

48646444467_194124fcc2_c.jpg799×324 37.1 KB

So, what’s driving the price down?

  • More renewables? ie 24hr wind contribution? and more Solar?
  • Overall downward trend in wholesale pricing? (driven by low gas prices?)
  • Octopus getting a better handle on pricing versus demand versus profitability?

Or a combination of everything? :smiley:

#23

Been a while since I posted some Agile prices… here’s last night.

5p per unit for around 6 hours straight from midnight onwards.

This is certainly a growing trend. :+1:

#24

LOW, LOW, LOW.

One-third of a penny per unit tonight!!

#25

The problem I see with agile tariffs, at least for me, is that you can’t completely predict when the cheapest periods will be. I charge both my Model S and Powerwall 2 on night rate electricity and am currently on the EDF Easy Online 18 month tariff which is 4.9p/kWh night (7 hours) and about 24.6p/kWh peak. These lowest and maximum rates are similar to your Octopus Agile real rates, but the high peak is much longer on the EDF tariff. Thos doesn’t bother me because my Powerwall 2 should supply all my Peak rate demand.

So my problem with the Octopus Agile tariff is that I set the night period on the Powerwall 2 and set the start of charge the on the Model S so that they only use the low night rate and I have 7 hours of that. Until we get smart Powerwall and Model S charging times that tie in with the agile tariffs I can’t accurately set the timers to be sure to use the cheapest rates.

I do have another problem with the Easy Online tariff, which required the installation of a Smart Meter, something I was rather reluctant to do, with good reason it seems. Until the smart meter was fitted a week ago, I wan’t using any peak rate electricity, according to both my old drum meter and the Powerwall PVOutput data. However, the smart meter is clocking up a steady demand of about 0.1kW all the time. That may not sound much but equates to over £150 per annum! Investigations are under way. Before you make observations on this problem, please read my detailed correspondence on the Tesla Motors Club Energy forum at
[https://teslamotorsclub.com/tmc/threads/gateway-2-and-smart-meter-accuracy.172604/]
I am aware of potential sampling errors at low energy flows.

#26

This is where the code / app of the batteries / chargers needs to be better imho.

With Octopus publishing data via their API its upto the app owners to hook into this to allow charging when appropriate (ie when cheapest). They should be no need to ‘predict’ or hand crank charging times when the data is fully available each evening for the next day.

The Ohme charger for example does this. https://www.ohme-ev.com/

#27

The latest fruits of my coding labour is a new Twitter account (@energystatsuk) that tweets out and graphs the next days Octopus Agile tariff data each evening.

https://twitter.com/energystatsuk

Its work in progress, so if anyone has any thoughts or comments please let me know.

49032008968_14150e5c1d_z.jpg482×640 67.9 KB

#28

Utter Madness on Octopus Agile tariff tonight.

Over 5 hours of negative pricing, so you GET PAID to use as much electricity as you want.

Min: -1.8p (02:30)
Max: 25.3p (17:00)
Average: 6.8p
Av Excl Peak: 4.2p
Go Period (0030-0430): -0.8p
Peak Time (1600-1900): 24.0p

Stats via https://www.energy-stats.uk/

Follow on Twitter: @energystatsuk

#29

It gets even better tonight… get paid almost 5p per unit!!!

What is this windy madness!!

#30

I was asked if I could add the daily Agile pricing in table format.

Whilst I can’t guarantee I can add everything asked for, this one seemed to work out ok.

So I’ve added table based pricing as an alternative to the graphs/charts to each of the 14 DNO regional Agile and Agile Outgoing pages.

For example: https://www.energy-stats.uk/octopus-agile-yorkshire/

Hope this helps folks.

#31

I’ve made some changes to my code over the weekend which should now enable quicker updates to the website (https://www.energy-stats.uk/) and posting the Agile pricing summary graph out via @energystatsuk

I used to have a set cron job at 6pm that did all the work, but i’ve now put some ongoing checks from 4pm onwards looking for new pricing via the API and acting upon them when I see them posted.

Its seems to have been stable over the past few days, so hopefully will continue to work as planned in to the future. :+1: